Halo, Bro. Hope your have a good days, I am selling too early and too confidence to the
bearish of the financial market since April 2009. As you know that, DJI surge more than 30% within 3 month, I am missing the boat but manage to catch some local Oil & Gas Stock for the weekend pocket money, I am 90% in cash right now wait for next Trend of
the market, To me, U.S market traded at 15-16 PER consider is not cheap rite now in view
of US housing trouble still not fully settle yet. As a local (KLCI) stock also traded 14-15 PER also not cheap rite now in view of 50% of Malaysia economy are depend on external
demand, (i.e, export to US & Europe market).
I am not going to predict where market will go due to I always wrong but some of the data & economy indicator must be sharing with your.
1. The US personal saving rate increase from 0% (2004) to 6% present day.
2. The US economy still very much depend on it's domestic demand, 70% of GDP still
depend on Consumer of America.
3. The real family debt increase from 8.5% (2004) to 13% present day.
4. The real housing wealth decrese from 8% (2004) to 5.5% present day.
5. The price of Real Estate of US, i.e Case chiller home price indexs decrease about40% from the peak of 2005 till present day. nos sign of stablize due to the increase of Us treasury yield.
6. The 10 year US treasury increase from 2% to 3.51% within 4 month, the increase of
Medium & Long Term Us treasury may causing the Mortage rate will follow the path,
so happen that make houseowner of US difficult to refinance their Home loan.
7. More than 60% of US Houseowners are 负资产，i.e, value of Homeloan more than
value of house.
8. The US unployment increse to 9.6%, estimated 10% by end of 2009
9. Credit Card loss rate increase to all time high 8.1%.
From the above data, i m hardly to convicting myself to believe there is 'GreenShoot'.
in the economy of US. But why worldwide market surge more than 30%?
My opinion the main reason of the cheap money provided by Worldwide central bank loan to commercial bank are directly flow to stock market, I am underestimate the power of liquidity & velocity of hot money in the worldwide financial market can be REFLATE the price of the assets in such magnitute. This is the reason why I overweight on Oil & Gas/ Commodities sector April 2009.
What mistake i have beed done? Why I missed the Big Boat rite now?
Bcos I not understand Guy & Dog theory by André Kostolany, Legendary Investor of German.
有一个男子带着狗在街上散步，像所有的狗一样，这狗先跑到前面，再回到主人身边。接着，又跑到前面，看到自己跑得太远．又再折回来。整个过程里，狗就这样反反复复。最后，他俩同时抵达终点，男子悠闲地走了一公里，而狗跑来跑去，走了四公里。男子就是经济，狗则是证券市场。”- 安德烈‧科斯托蘭尼
Second Mistake - I try to predict the market by my own analysis. As for the investor,
no body will predict the market 100% correctly but we can follow the trend instead of
predict the market. Nobody in this world will buy the lowest & selling highest. Bcos
Markets are never wrong - opinions often are - Jesse Livermore
Both of the above 2 guys dead long time ago, but their way still useful. Why?
Bcos Human never Change. Greed & Fear of Human Being never Change.
My own 'Crocodile & Retailer' theory still can apply to the today market.
Lot of the penny stock surge more than 300% within 2 month like Lioncor, Liondiv & Uemland. Who able to lift up the share price to such extend? U? Me? Fund Manager?
No, No, No..... All is how the Speculator (the proxy of Director) used Stock Market to
Cari Makan. Fear of Human causing investor to dump lioncor till RM0.15, Greed send Lioncor sky rocket to RM0.58 less than one month. Yesterday, The edge weekly reported
that William Cheng willing to merge Lioncor with Liondiv to create the SEA biggest steel maker, Why the share price never go up instead of go down? 2 Reason.
1. Buy on Rumours, Sell on News - Rule no.1 of Goreng Share.
& again
2. Markets are never wrong - opinions often are.
MAS, Malaysia Airline System, Reported huge losses last quarter, price of MAS manage holding steady from RM2.90-RM3.10 after the quarter result even the
breakout of H1N1. It's peer, Airasia, Tony's Baby, A very good publicity & highly
been know that well managed company, Sliping from RM1.36 to RM1.12 after reported best ever quarter result. Why? 3 Reason.
1. Buy on Rumours, Sell on News - Rule no.1 of Goreng Share.
2. Markets are never wrong - opinions often are.
3. Airasia have RM8 billion debt & MAS have 3.5 Billion cash in the coffer.
Next week I will further discuss the next My own 'Trend' for second half of 2009. I already
miss out the 2Q2009 Commodities/Oil & Gas trend, & i don't want to miss out again.
Remember, Trend is the money will flow into certain class of assets by fund.
Trend shall be support by fundalmental of economy & the policy of Cental Bank.
There is still have a room to make marney in the Bear Market if u successful
to indentify of next trend. But. lot of homework have to do.
