Financial Ratio

流动比率（Current Ratio）

流动比率也称营运资金比率（Working Capital Ratio）或真实比率（Real Ratio），是指企业流动资产与流动负债的比率。流动比率和速动比率都是反映企业短期偿债能力的指标。
　　一般说来，这两个比率越高，说明企业资产的变现能力越强，短期偿债能力亦越强；反之则弱。一般认为流动比率应在2：1以上，速动比率应在1：1以上。流动比率2：1，表示流动资产是流动负债的两倍，即使流动资产有一半在短期内不能变现，也能保证全部的流动负债得到偿还；速动比率1：1，表示现金等具有即时变现能力的速动资产与流动负债相等，可以随时偿付全部流动负债。当然，不同行业经营情况不同，其流动比率和速动比率的正常标准会有所不同。应当说明的是，这两个比率并非越高越好。流动比率过高，即流动资产相对于流动负债太多，可能是存货积压，也可能是持有现金太多，或者两者兼而有之；速动比率过高，即速动资产相对于流动负债太多，说明现金持有太多。企业的存货积压，说明企业经营不善，存货可能存在问题；现金持有太多，说明企业不善理财，资金利用效率低下。

流动比率=流动资产÷流动负债


速动比率（Quick Ratio）

速动比率是指速动资产对流动负债的比率。它是衡量企业流动资产中可以立即变现用于偿还流动负债的能力。
　　速动资产包括货币资金、短期投资、应收票据、预付账款、应收账款、其他应收款项等，可以在较短时间内变现。而流动资产中存货、1年内到期的非流动资产及其他流动资产等则不应计入。

速动比率=速动资产/流动负债
　　其中：速动资产=流动资产-存货
　　或：速动资产=流动资产-存货-预付账款-待摊费用


净资产收益率（Rate of Return on Common Stockholders' Equity，ROE/Profit Margin on Net Assets）

净资产收益率定义

　　净资产收益率又称股东权益报酬率/净值报酬率/权益报酬率/权益利润率/净资产利润率，是衡量上市公司盈利能力的重要指标。是指利润额与平均股东权益的比值，该指标越高，说明投资带来的收益越高；净资产收益率越低，说明企业所有者权益的获利能力越弱。该指标体现了自有资本获得净收益的能力。
　　一般来说，负债增加会导致净资产收益率的上升。
　　企业资产包括了两部分，一部分是股东的投资，即所有者权益（它是股东投入的股本，企业公积金和留存收益等的总和），另一部分是企业借入和暂时占用的资金。企业适当的运用财务杠杆可以提高资金的使用效率，借入的资金过多会增大企业的财务风险，但一般可以提高盈利，借入的资金过少会降低资金的使用效率。净资产收益率是衡量股东资金使用效率的重要财务指标。

净资产收益率的计算公式
其计算公式为：
　　净资产收益率=净利润/平均净资产×100%


淨邊際利潤率 (Net Profit Margin)
淨邊際利潤率 = 稅後純利 / 營業額


經營邊際利潤率 (Operating Profit Margin)
經營邊際利潤率 = 經營溢利 / 營業額


存貨週轉率 (Inventory Turnover)
存貨週轉率 = 營業額 / 平均存貨


資產週轉率 (Assets Turnover)
資產週轉率 = 營業額 / 總資產

筛选强势股的四道程序

筛选强势股，有如下四道程序：

第一程序：把经过长期下跌，跌幅超过50%以上，远离历史套牢盘，股票价格在2-5元之间，最近两个月无大比例解禁股上市、流通股本在1.5亿以下的个股全部集中。

第二程序：在前一道程序筛选结果里，挑选出股价接连收阴，单日换手率在2-4%之间，连续两个月换手率超过200%品种。

第三程序：以上两种特点的个股突然从某一天开始连续小幅拉高，连收3天以上阳线，但是，整体涨幅不大，预示这样的个股进入目标伏击对象。

第四程序：盘中频繁出现百手以上的整数买单，股价对敲上拉，再大的卖盘也被消灭，此时必须第一时间跟涨。

辅助原则：

通常强势股在上拉第一个涨停板的时候，会故意把涨停打开，显示盘中买盘无力的假象，诱使获利盘抛售，在随后不久的时间里，主力再次以大单封住涨停，盘中卖压开始逐步消失。

对这样的个股，通常以10日线为持股原则，此类强势股通常不会轻易跌破10日线，随后的拉抬过程中，5日均线呈散发状态向上扬升，能够连拉两个涨停还不出现大的成交量的品种，后期还可以继续逼空，因此，日K线不现大阴线，成交量不放大到15%以上，10日均线不破位掉头，可以继续安心持有。

通常计算这样的个股上涨幅度有三种方式：

1：矩形整理、上升三角形、旗型整理形态的品种，幅度以起点最低价格×2。
2：中级以上反弹中可以使用倍增数，也就是翻番。
3：次反弹中，可以参考50%值，如发现突破这个数值仍然不放量者，应该继续看高。

此类股往往有利多消息和题材兑现，一旦题材兑现和见光，应该提前离场观望。

华尔街证券书店的格言

“在风险市场的投资活动中，规避和防范风险是第一要务，也是取得长期成功的保障，顺应价格运动趋势从而顺势而为是第二要务，也是市场生存的不二法则，牢牢把握这二点是走向投资成功之路的必备前提”。这是华尔街证券书店的格言，我们应该好好牢记。

Malaysia Super-Genius Politician on Inflation

After a few year, when the global inflation running out of control,

And they start panicking the whole world follows with the exception of some clueless Malaysian politicians who thought they’re still living in a lonely island.

while char keow theow in Gurney Drive already increase from Rm4.00 to Rm8.00 per plate.

Yes, there is no inflation in Malaysia. If got also very mild 1 lah. and

No “hyperinflation” to coming. Sugar & petrol will not increase, we will subsidy that. don't worry about that.

1 week later. They annouce to increase petrol Rm1.90 to RM2.70/litre.

Malaysia Boleh!

Haha...

Hugh Hendry Shorts China, Betting on 1920s Japan-Like Crash

British hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry is betting China’s “credit bubble” will burst, causing its economy to contract and triggering a global crisis.

Hendry’s Eclectica Asset Management has bought options on 20 companies in international markets that will profit from “a dramatic collapse” of China’s growth that’s been fueled by an unprecedented lending boom, Hendry said in a May 17 telephone interview from London.

Hendry joins hedge fund manager James Chanos and Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a potential crash in China.

The nation’s 13 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion) of new lending in the past 16 months, bigger than the economies of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong combined, is spurring industrial capacity expansion in the same way Japanese credit built inventory during and after World War I, Hendry said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-18/hugh-hendry-shorts-china-betting-on-1920s-japan-like-crash.html

China’s Bubble Waiting To Burst

FROM far away, the China Pavilion towers like an inverted red pyramid over everything else at the £30 billion World Expo 2010.
It is a symbol of growing Chinese confidence about the country’s rise in the global economy and the strength of its one-party political system.
The Expo is a far bigger economic event for China than the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with 10 times as many visitors and huge investments in the host city of Shanghai.
As many as 70m people, most of them Chinese, are expected to come. A million have already queued in the past 14 days to view their own nation’s grandiose display of power, wealth and civilisation.
“It’s wonderful,” said Siu Wei, 24, an engineer, “far better than any other country’s show. So let the whole world see China today.”
“Mind you,” said his girlfriend, “I really liked the British pavilion with the seeds because it had imagination — like, seeds are the source of life.”
He did not look convinced, even though both had just emerged from Britain’s distinctive £30m “seed cathedral” of delicate waving strands, each encasing a seed, like a giant fluffy ball.
For the hosts, Expo 2010 is about a triumph of will — not imagination.
Shanghai, China’s commercial capital, has transformed itself by pouring billions in state-ordained investment into new subways, flyovers, tunnels, bridges and airport terminals.
However, some economists dare to say the Expo may be a symbol both of China’s economic might and of flaws in its system.
According to Fan Yongming of Shanghai’s prestigious Fudan University, the Expo has accounted for half of the city’s fixed asset investment over the past eight years. Nobody is sure what will take its place.
That is exactly the dilemma facing China’s planners, who engineered a stunning 11.9% growth in the first three months of this year while Europe and America struggled with recession and debt.
Marc Faber, the bearish investor who peddles boom, doom and gloom in his reports, believes China could crash within 12 months as falling prices in stock and commodity markets indicate that a property bubble is about to burst.
Faber is unkind enough to point out that the 1873 world exhibition in Vienna was followed by a classic 19th century slump and depression.
He is among an emerging chorus of analysts who suggest China only saved itself from crashing exports and a recession at the price of a binge in state spending that overheated the economy and will lead to ruinous debts.
“It is the greatest bubble in history with the most massive misallocation of wealth,” said James Rickards, formerly of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management. He told a business summit in Hong Kong that stock market speculation on credit and wasteful spending by officials were disasters waiting to happen.
Rickards even said it is time to take China and Russia out of the investment-fashionable Brics grouping — coined by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs — because only Brazil and India are what he called “real economies”.
While Faber and Rickards may be mavericks, they have been joined by Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard and by Jim Chanos, a renowned hedge fund investor, in predicting that China could overheat and crash.
Rogoff said bursting the Chinese debt bubble would cause a recession throughout Asia in the next 10 years and Chanos warned that China was addicted to property development as a growth and revenue driver.
Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai who is closer to the market, said powerful interest groups have paralysed economic policy, and local governments survive financially by inflating the price of land — all of which they own.
State-owned companies are bingeing on low interest rates and do not want rates to rise. Exporters, backed by the powerful Commerce Ministry, refuse to countenance a rise in the yuan. Meanwhile, the spectre of inflation has returned to food markets in Chinese cities.
There was a perfect contradiction recently when Xie Xuren, the finance minister, said “the government is committed to expansionary policies for recovery” — just hours after the central bank tightened reserve requirements for banks.
A hawkish adviser to the central bank, Li Daokui, last week pressed the case for raising interest rates from the benchmark 2.5% one year deposit rate after consumer price inflation reached 2.8%. So far there has been no move.
Officials also seem to think they can stop the property juggernaut by piecemeal measures to cut speculation and increasing the supply of low-cost housing. But a recent study by HSBC said credit-fuelled demand exceeds supply and the frenzied momentum of the market has pushed the ratio of property values to GDP to levels approaching those of Japan in the 1980s.
Stepping outside the dreamworld of Expo on to Shanghai’s bustling streets, every third shop seems to have turned itself into an estate agency and newspapers are bursting with property advertisements.
Official statistics — which are unreliable — show house prices in Shanghai are rising at 11% a year but agents and local people say the reality is more like 50%.
Yet there is growing evidence that while the top rank of Chinese consumers are spending like never before, the wealth gap epitomised by the property market is dividing society and leading to trouble.
“Demolition and rebuilding amounted to 47% of fixed-asset investment over the last five years so China’s biggest city put half its investment into construction,” said Wang Lianli, a popular online economic analyst. “But the government forgot that people who live in these homes need jobs and livelihoods, not just a few industrial parks in the suburbs,” she said.
Even the spate of stabbings of children in schools over the past few weeks has been blamed by media commentators on mental pressure and despair among society’s losers.
Boosting domestic consumption and thus improving everyday life are aims urged on the Chinese government not only by some officials but by almost all of China’s foreign trade partners.
However, faction fighting in Beijing over the past two years has left advocates of the traditional low-wage, low-cost export strategy in commanding positions. There is no realistic sign of change.
Investors are beginning to sense that Chinese officials may not be able to realise their contradictory objectives — cooling the real estate market, curbing inflation, keeping growth above 8% and raising real wages — at the same time.
The first signals are coming through in the markets. The Shanghai composite index has been the worst performer in Asia this year.
Shares of the biggest banks, ICBC, Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have neared record lows because investors fear a replay of the bad debt banking crisis of the 1990s, which ended with a state bailout.
Despite all that, sagacious Chinese investors take a long view of their country’s development which is more in harmony with Expo’s message of a “better city, better life”.
“Yes, there are bubbles in some property markets but there will be strong demand because China is industrialising and people are moving into cities,” said Wang Yiwen, a Shanghai investment manager.
As he sat sipping rare tea — similar to that presented by President Hu Jintao to Russia’s Vladimir Putin — in a perfectly reproduced tea house set in a giant sports stadium for the comfort of the richest spectators, Wang reeled off some typically Chinese figures.
“On average, every year more than 10m farmers move to settle in cities,” he said, “and every year millions of graduates also need to settle down. All of them need to buy a house, with the family’s help if necessary.”
Wang said the recent decline of 20% in the stock market was due to heavy flotations that drained 600 billion yuan (£60.4 billion), a selloff in banks and property shares and the expectation that inflation and interest rates were both on the way up.
However, out there in the provinces of China’s hinterland are tens of millions who want the better life promised by Expo 2010 — and Wang is among those willing to bet that nothing will stop them.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/china/article7127675.ece

Paper Money Is Being Debased Everywhere - Jim Roger

All we can do is to put our money into real assets because paper money everywhere is being debased"Jim Roger in Bloomberg, May 13

Buffett bearish on currencies holding value

Events in the world over the last few years make me more bearish on all currencies in terms of holding their value over time," Warren Buffett. 01/05/2010