炒股切忌丢了西瓜

全球股市一个劲的暴跌，很多股民开始吃不消了。在此，老话重提，炒股最重要的是心态，收起贪嗔痴才能戒定慧，没有心态的平和不但股炒不好，生活也会受其困扰，到头来是赔了夫人又折兵，实在不划算。做任何事，得失总是难免，其实仔细想来得无所得、失无所失，人本身就一臭皮囊，一切皆身外之物，两腿一蹬一切皆空，为这种无聊的事情纠结实在是太不划算的事情。事情能不能成除了人算还有天算，所以得失得失，得亦是失，失亦是得。股市上，亏钱不亏心境和身体那就是小亏，亏钱把身心都亏了那是绝对大亏。不以物喜，不以己悲，才是理财真境界

聪明人

昨日提到聰明人賺錢，普通人要止蝕的問題，惹起網友不同回應，網友牛腩貓咪講到:「1. 止蝕結果只有一個:賠錢，正常人不想損失。2. 止蝕即代表認錯， 正常人不喜歡認錯。3. 止蝕完，轉頭可能即時反彈，變成雙重損失。正常人無可以接受。不幸地，不正常是市場上的重點----逆向!」

而大笨袋鼠更提出理論解釋，話「『展望理論』(Prospect Theory) 認為人們的決策動機是他們對得與失的認定的價值，當中使用了loss aversion(迴避損失)慨念，損失所帶來的痛苦遠大於獲利所帶來的快樂。損失5舊(500元)的痛苦大於獲利5舊的快樂。」

我諗他們講普通人迴避損失的心理，就是人們炒股時不想止蝕的原因，但炒股若不止蝕又無任何控制風險的方法，恐怕是必輸的遊戲，因為講得叫炒，無論係炒窩、炒期指、炒期權、炒可能大升的二三線股，風險必大，若無控制的方法，你贏9次都無用，只要第10次是一次致命的沒頂之災，就可以把你淹沒，你頭9次愈係贏得勁，第10次愈係心雄，愈死得慘。所以止蝕一啲問題都無，唔想止蝕，唔係遇事時唔止蝕，而係盡量避免要走入止蝕的處境中。

牛腩貓咪講到一個重要的概念: 逆向，但也要正確了解這個概念。炒先炒作要講順勢，不是逆勢，例如美元如今是超強勢，睇走勢的系統會建議「強烈買入」，你如果懶逆向，逆勢沽出，可以輸到好慘，可以輸到你頂唔順打靶，美元才弱番。所以逆向不等如逆勢，逆向是逆群眾之向，不是逆股市之勢。你覺得美元最終會轉番弱，唔好即刻入市大注沽，你應該企在旁邊等，見去有少少回頭走勢，可以放點小注去試盤沽，若再升即止蝕。若試完盤沽出後美元開始向下，慢慢變成順勢時，可以加注沽，呢個就係有一種逆向睇法，但係順勢去做。

我講突然有消息的處境，例如講炒業績，假設有一班聰明人，估到、甚至知道一個公司將會公布怎樣的好業績，他們在業績公布前一兩個星期前買入，結果真係宣布好業績，他們作為短炒者，好可能在消息曝光第二日早上開市，股份大力抽高時，佢地就沽貨出街，最多普通人想買的時候，就是聰明人大手出貨的最好時候，這隻股份的所有短線表現，在消息公布的第二日早上10時的幾分鐘內已完全體現。

你可能即刻會駁我，有些好股，公布完業績抽升後回一回，過一兩日又會重拾升勢。這完全不是奇怪的事，但已換了一批買家。短炒的聰明人退了場，短炒的普通人接了貨，隻股回番一兩日，短炒的普通人頂唔順打了靶或者怕悶離了場，中長線投資者等靜番先至才入場，這是另一場遊戲，長線投資者如果真係有料到，佢睇緊公司明年、後年的盈利增長，當短炒的群眾退場時，也是一個逆向機會，俾無內幕的長線投資者進場，我經常話長線投資者唔好高追，就係呢個原因。

新时期识别主力未出局的基本诀窍

空没有留下任何，但，鸟已飞过。
雁过无声的意境总是如此。

股市中，主力对一只个股的操作不会了无痕迹。

先主力启动之前入局，在主力抛售前离开，这是短线投资的绝妙所在。问题是，任何主力都不会轻易暴露出自己建仓或出货的痕迹，否则就等于是自杀，同理，我们能够得出一个结论，如果一只股票的主力刻意暴露自己的行踪和意图，必须注意，它已经要开始诱人上当了。

有一千只股票，就有一千种坐庄，做盘的手法，一味照搬教科书式的理论，无疑有刻舟求剑或守株待兔的味道。

当前，A股市场遇到史无前例的大小非减持问题，市场总筹码悄然改变，除主力和散户外，又多了一个第三者，因此，判断主力进出的基本方法，必须有新思维和新方法。

新时期，也可以说是全流通时期，如何判断一只个股主力没有出局呢？

第一：趋势总是大涨小回，底部不断抬高。这个识别方法是技术上的重要手段，股票运行的方式有上涨、下跌、横盘这三种，一只股票中主力没有出局的重要识别方式就是任何一次下跌形成的新的低点不会低于以往一个时期的次低位置，这说明，主力不容许市场成本低于自己的持仓成本，否则就应该理解为主力不计成本出走。

第二：中长期均线系统必须是多头排列。其用意是，主力资金的长期护盘结果，好的技术形态利于个股股价推高，容易树立良好的市场口碑，盘口买卖活跃，才能够利于主力出货和派发，很难想象，一只技术形态不完美的个股，主力做庄的难度会是如何，当然，这一点在洗盘阶段除外。即使有跌破重要的技术位置，主力也会在不久的时间里有效收复。

第三：整体趋势强于大盘。用简单的文字描述就是，大盘上涨的时候，个股涨幅大于大盘同期涨幅，而大势向坏或下跌的时候，以横盘或小幅调整代替。

以上三点是识别主力没有出局的基本诀窍。当然，以往总结的其他方式，像成交量（换手率）、趋势线、是否出现衰竭性缺口、股票价格短期涨幅大小、市场消息利多是否增加等等，都是辅助识别方式，考虑到市场主力手法诡异多变，最有效的识别方式当为以上三点了。

只要以上重要识别方式没有发生改变，投资者不妨任由主力震仓、洗盘，安心迎接强庄股的一个个新高出现

下半年最具翻番能力的股票

下半年最具翻番能力的股票
http://blog.sina.com.cn/u/1216826604

2010年上半年已经成为过去,以大盘指数的表现来看,上半年能获得收益的投资者并不多.按晒晒2010年上半年的收益晒晒2010年上半年的收益的选项来看,上半年整体亏损的投资者达80%,盈利的只占少部分.

那么,下半年最具翻番能力的股票有吗?适合在什么板块寻找?
1.新能源(电池.太阳能.风电.核电)
2.新材料
3.节能环保
4.智能电网
5.高铁(设备.技术)
6.科技创新(信息技术.智能技术.生物技术.软件技术等)

操作中投资者要记住的是:只低买,不追高.并选择盘子袖珍,成长率高的品种.预计创业板和中小企业板会继续成为2010年(中报或年报)高送转股的基地.也将是下半年最具翻番能力的牛股基地.



封起De日子
http://blog.sina.com.cn/fengqiderizi


近期有关大盘指数运行的说明文字多了点。其实，中小投资者没有必要那样看重大盘，毕竟这些资金不是买卖的指数，不是靠股指赚钱，还是前期说过的一个观点：精心、细心做个股。

做主力做多、技术形态良好，趋势通道健康的个股；
做国家产业政策鼓励扶植朝阳行业的个股；
做具有核心技术垄断或稀缺资源垄断的优质股；
做业绩有望持续高成长的小盘优质含权股。

4.19持续大跌的时候说过一句话，那些有主力资金看护，有长庄运行的优质股是根本不会跌回今年年初的价格的，现在，它们不都又创出新的反弹新高了吗。

在昨天给某博友的公开留言封起说：“大盘走大盘的趋势，但是，个股机会重在把握”。

重技术，学技术，但是，不惟技术；
看指数，看大盘，但是，更应看趋势；

大盘趋势是坏的，但是，某些个股的趋势是好的；
同样，在大盘趋势转好的时候，某些个股趋势却是坏坏的；

这些现象，这些问题都是客观存在的。
即使大盘下跌到某个安全区域，可是，投资者买进的是即将退市的股票，或者是长期趋势一直向坏的股票，那样同样没有希望，甚至是绝望。

曹仁超语录

分析员都知道股市、衍生市场、债券、外汇、黄金及房地产是互相影响，一个地区或国家的市场又可影响其他地区或国家市场的表现。但每一个分析员只拥有有限度的前景展望能力(最精明的分析员亦只能估计未来三个月方向，没有一个人可拥有三百六十度视野)，甚至政府亦没有神仙棒可指挥一切。
我们只能用智慧取代贪念与恐惧，制订投资策略总胜过做盲头乌蝇。作为投资者必须严守纪律、捕捉机会、逃避风险、不可死牛一边颈(勇于认错)、随形势改变而改变自己看法、收起自己的傲慢与偏见，以及一旦形势不利及时止蚀离场，有时更要逆向思维，因大部分专家的分析皆受市场气氛影响──见好睇好、见淡睇淡。

Financial Ratio

流动比率（Current Ratio）

流动比率也称营运资金比率（Working Capital Ratio）或真实比率（Real Ratio），是指企业流动资产与流动负债的比率。流动比率和速动比率都是反映企业短期偿债能力的指标。
　　一般说来，这两个比率越高，说明企业资产的变现能力越强，短期偿债能力亦越强；反之则弱。一般认为流动比率应在2：1以上，速动比率应在1：1以上。流动比率2：1，表示流动资产是流动负债的两倍，即使流动资产有一半在短期内不能变现，也能保证全部的流动负债得到偿还；速动比率1：1，表示现金等具有即时变现能力的速动资产与流动负债相等，可以随时偿付全部流动负债。当然，不同行业经营情况不同，其流动比率和速动比率的正常标准会有所不同。应当说明的是，这两个比率并非越高越好。流动比率过高，即流动资产相对于流动负债太多，可能是存货积压，也可能是持有现金太多，或者两者兼而有之；速动比率过高，即速动资产相对于流动负债太多，说明现金持有太多。企业的存货积压，说明企业经营不善，存货可能存在问题；现金持有太多，说明企业不善理财，资金利用效率低下。

流动比率=流动资产÷流动负债


速动比率（Quick Ratio）

速动比率是指速动资产对流动负债的比率。它是衡量企业流动资产中可以立即变现用于偿还流动负债的能力。
　　速动资产包括货币资金、短期投资、应收票据、预付账款、应收账款、其他应收款项等，可以在较短时间内变现。而流动资产中存货、1年内到期的非流动资产及其他流动资产等则不应计入。

速动比率=速动资产/流动负债
　　其中：速动资产=流动资产-存货
　　或：速动资产=流动资产-存货-预付账款-待摊费用


净资产收益率（Rate of Return on Common Stockholders' Equity，ROE/Profit Margin on Net Assets）

净资产收益率定义

　　净资产收益率又称股东权益报酬率/净值报酬率/权益报酬率/权益利润率/净资产利润率，是衡量上市公司盈利能力的重要指标。是指利润额与平均股东权益的比值，该指标越高，说明投资带来的收益越高；净资产收益率越低，说明企业所有者权益的获利能力越弱。该指标体现了自有资本获得净收益的能力。
　　一般来说，负债增加会导致净资产收益率的上升。
　　企业资产包括了两部分，一部分是股东的投资，即所有者权益（它是股东投入的股本，企业公积金和留存收益等的总和），另一部分是企业借入和暂时占用的资金。企业适当的运用财务杠杆可以提高资金的使用效率，借入的资金过多会增大企业的财务风险，但一般可以提高盈利，借入的资金过少会降低资金的使用效率。净资产收益率是衡量股东资金使用效率的重要财务指标。

净资产收益率的计算公式
其计算公式为：
　　净资产收益率=净利润/平均净资产×100%


淨邊際利潤率 (Net Profit Margin)
淨邊際利潤率 = 稅後純利 / 營業額


經營邊際利潤率 (Operating Profit Margin)
經營邊際利潤率 = 經營溢利 / 營業額


存貨週轉率 (Inventory Turnover)
存貨週轉率 = 營業額 / 平均存貨


資產週轉率 (Assets Turnover)
資產週轉率 = 營業額 / 總資產

筛选强势股的四道程序

筛选强势股，有如下四道程序：

第一程序：把经过长期下跌，跌幅超过50%以上，远离历史套牢盘，股票价格在2-5元之间，最近两个月无大比例解禁股上市、流通股本在1.5亿以下的个股全部集中。

第二程序：在前一道程序筛选结果里，挑选出股价接连收阴，单日换手率在2-4%之间，连续两个月换手率超过200%品种。

第三程序：以上两种特点的个股突然从某一天开始连续小幅拉高，连收3天以上阳线，但是，整体涨幅不大，预示这样的个股进入目标伏击对象。

第四程序：盘中频繁出现百手以上的整数买单，股价对敲上拉，再大的卖盘也被消灭，此时必须第一时间跟涨。

辅助原则：

通常强势股在上拉第一个涨停板的时候，会故意把涨停打开，显示盘中买盘无力的假象，诱使获利盘抛售，在随后不久的时间里，主力再次以大单封住涨停，盘中卖压开始逐步消失。

对这样的个股，通常以10日线为持股原则，此类强势股通常不会轻易跌破10日线，随后的拉抬过程中，5日均线呈散发状态向上扬升，能够连拉两个涨停还不出现大的成交量的品种，后期还可以继续逼空，因此，日K线不现大阴线，成交量不放大到15%以上，10日均线不破位掉头，可以继续安心持有。

通常计算这样的个股上涨幅度有三种方式：

1：矩形整理、上升三角形、旗型整理形态的品种，幅度以起点最低价格×2。
2：中级以上反弹中可以使用倍增数，也就是翻番。
3：次反弹中，可以参考50%值，如发现突破这个数值仍然不放量者，应该继续看高。

此类股往往有利多消息和题材兑现，一旦题材兑现和见光，应该提前离场观望。

华尔街证券书店的格言

“在风险市场的投资活动中，规避和防范风险是第一要务，也是取得长期成功的保障，顺应价格运动趋势从而顺势而为是第二要务，也是市场生存的不二法则，牢牢把握这二点是走向投资成功之路的必备前提”。这是华尔街证券书店的格言，我们应该好好牢记。

Malaysia Super-Genius Politician on Inflation

After a few year, when the global inflation running out of control,

And they start panicking the whole world follows with the exception of some clueless Malaysian politicians who thought they’re still living in a lonely island.

while char keow theow in Gurney Drive already increase from Rm4.00 to Rm8.00 per plate.

Yes, there is no inflation in Malaysia. If got also very mild 1 lah. and

No “hyperinflation” to coming. Sugar & petrol will not increase, we will subsidy that. don't worry about that.

1 week later. They annouce to increase petrol Rm1.90 to RM2.70/litre.

Malaysia Boleh!

Haha...

Hugh Hendry Shorts China, Betting on 1920s Japan-Like Crash

British hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry is betting China’s “credit bubble” will burst, causing its economy to contract and triggering a global crisis.

Hendry’s Eclectica Asset Management has bought options on 20 companies in international markets that will profit from “a dramatic collapse” of China’s growth that’s been fueled by an unprecedented lending boom, Hendry said in a May 17 telephone interview from London.

Hendry joins hedge fund manager James Chanos and Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a potential crash in China.

The nation’s 13 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion) of new lending in the past 16 months, bigger than the economies of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong combined, is spurring industrial capacity expansion in the same way Japanese credit built inventory during and after World War I, Hendry said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-18/hugh-hendry-shorts-china-betting-on-1920s-japan-like-crash.html

China’s Bubble Waiting To Burst

FROM far away, the China Pavilion towers like an inverted red pyramid over everything else at the £30 billion World Expo 2010.
It is a symbol of growing Chinese confidence about the country’s rise in the global economy and the strength of its one-party political system.
The Expo is a far bigger economic event for China than the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with 10 times as many visitors and huge investments in the host city of Shanghai.
As many as 70m people, most of them Chinese, are expected to come. A million have already queued in the past 14 days to view their own nation’s grandiose display of power, wealth and civilisation.
“It’s wonderful,” said Siu Wei, 24, an engineer, “far better than any other country’s show. So let the whole world see China today.”
“Mind you,” said his girlfriend, “I really liked the British pavilion with the seeds because it had imagination — like, seeds are the source of life.”
He did not look convinced, even though both had just emerged from Britain’s distinctive £30m “seed cathedral” of delicate waving strands, each encasing a seed, like a giant fluffy ball.
For the hosts, Expo 2010 is about a triumph of will — not imagination.
Shanghai, China’s commercial capital, has transformed itself by pouring billions in state-ordained investment into new subways, flyovers, tunnels, bridges and airport terminals.
However, some economists dare to say the Expo may be a symbol both of China’s economic might and of flaws in its system.
According to Fan Yongming of Shanghai’s prestigious Fudan University, the Expo has accounted for half of the city’s fixed asset investment over the past eight years. Nobody is sure what will take its place.
That is exactly the dilemma facing China’s planners, who engineered a stunning 11.9% growth in the first three months of this year while Europe and America struggled with recession and debt.
Marc Faber, the bearish investor who peddles boom, doom and gloom in his reports, believes China could crash within 12 months as falling prices in stock and commodity markets indicate that a property bubble is about to burst.
Faber is unkind enough to point out that the 1873 world exhibition in Vienna was followed by a classic 19th century slump and depression.
He is among an emerging chorus of analysts who suggest China only saved itself from crashing exports and a recession at the price of a binge in state spending that overheated the economy and will lead to ruinous debts.
“It is the greatest bubble in history with the most massive misallocation of wealth,” said James Rickards, formerly of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management. He told a business summit in Hong Kong that stock market speculation on credit and wasteful spending by officials were disasters waiting to happen.
Rickards even said it is time to take China and Russia out of the investment-fashionable Brics grouping — coined by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs — because only Brazil and India are what he called “real economies”.
While Faber and Rickards may be mavericks, they have been joined by Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard and by Jim Chanos, a renowned hedge fund investor, in predicting that China could overheat and crash.
Rogoff said bursting the Chinese debt bubble would cause a recession throughout Asia in the next 10 years and Chanos warned that China was addicted to property development as a growth and revenue driver.
Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai who is closer to the market, said powerful interest groups have paralysed economic policy, and local governments survive financially by inflating the price of land — all of which they own.
State-owned companies are bingeing on low interest rates and do not want rates to rise. Exporters, backed by the powerful Commerce Ministry, refuse to countenance a rise in the yuan. Meanwhile, the spectre of inflation has returned to food markets in Chinese cities.
There was a perfect contradiction recently when Xie Xuren, the finance minister, said “the government is committed to expansionary policies for recovery” — just hours after the central bank tightened reserve requirements for banks.
A hawkish adviser to the central bank, Li Daokui, last week pressed the case for raising interest rates from the benchmark 2.5% one year deposit rate after consumer price inflation reached 2.8%. So far there has been no move.
Officials also seem to think they can stop the property juggernaut by piecemeal measures to cut speculation and increasing the supply of low-cost housing. But a recent study by HSBC said credit-fuelled demand exceeds supply and the frenzied momentum of the market has pushed the ratio of property values to GDP to levels approaching those of Japan in the 1980s.
Stepping outside the dreamworld of Expo on to Shanghai’s bustling streets, every third shop seems to have turned itself into an estate agency and newspapers are bursting with property advertisements.
Official statistics — which are unreliable — show house prices in Shanghai are rising at 11% a year but agents and local people say the reality is more like 50%.
Yet there is growing evidence that while the top rank of Chinese consumers are spending like never before, the wealth gap epitomised by the property market is dividing society and leading to trouble.
“Demolition and rebuilding amounted to 47% of fixed-asset investment over the last five years so China’s biggest city put half its investment into construction,” said Wang Lianli, a popular online economic analyst. “But the government forgot that people who live in these homes need jobs and livelihoods, not just a few industrial parks in the suburbs,” she said.
Even the spate of stabbings of children in schools over the past few weeks has been blamed by media commentators on mental pressure and despair among society’s losers.
Boosting domestic consumption and thus improving everyday life are aims urged on the Chinese government not only by some officials but by almost all of China’s foreign trade partners.
However, faction fighting in Beijing over the past two years has left advocates of the traditional low-wage, low-cost export strategy in commanding positions. There is no realistic sign of change.
Investors are beginning to sense that Chinese officials may not be able to realise their contradictory objectives — cooling the real estate market, curbing inflation, keeping growth above 8% and raising real wages — at the same time.
The first signals are coming through in the markets. The Shanghai composite index has been the worst performer in Asia this year.
Shares of the biggest banks, ICBC, Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have neared record lows because investors fear a replay of the bad debt banking crisis of the 1990s, which ended with a state bailout.
Despite all that, sagacious Chinese investors take a long view of their country’s development which is more in harmony with Expo’s message of a “better city, better life”.
“Yes, there are bubbles in some property markets but there will be strong demand because China is industrialising and people are moving into cities,” said Wang Yiwen, a Shanghai investment manager.
As he sat sipping rare tea — similar to that presented by President Hu Jintao to Russia’s Vladimir Putin — in a perfectly reproduced tea house set in a giant sports stadium for the comfort of the richest spectators, Wang reeled off some typically Chinese figures.
“On average, every year more than 10m farmers move to settle in cities,” he said, “and every year millions of graduates also need to settle down. All of them need to buy a house, with the family’s help if necessary.”
Wang said the recent decline of 20% in the stock market was due to heavy flotations that drained 600 billion yuan (£60.4 billion), a selloff in banks and property shares and the expectation that inflation and interest rates were both on the way up.
However, out there in the provinces of China’s hinterland are tens of millions who want the better life promised by Expo 2010 — and Wang is among those willing to bet that nothing will stop them.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/china/article7127675.ece

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