Malaysia Super-Genius Politician on Inflation

After a few year, when the global inflation running out of control,

And they start panicking the whole world follows with the exception of some clueless Malaysian politicians who thought they’re still living in a lonely island.

while char keow theow in Gurney Drive already increase from Rm4.00 to Rm8.00 per plate.

Yes, there is no inflation in Malaysia. If got also very mild 1 lah. and

No “hyperinflation” to coming. Sugar & petrol will not increase, we will subsidy that. don't worry about that.

1 week later. They annouce to increase petrol Rm1.90 to RM2.70/litre.

Malaysia Boleh!

Haha...

Hugh Hendry Shorts China, Betting on 1920s Japan-Like Crash

British hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry is betting China’s “credit bubble” will burst, causing its economy to contract and triggering a global crisis.

Hendry’s Eclectica Asset Management has bought options on 20 companies in international markets that will profit from “a dramatic collapse” of China’s growth that’s been fueled by an unprecedented lending boom, Hendry said in a May 17 telephone interview from London.

Hendry joins hedge fund manager James Chanos and Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a potential crash in China.

The nation’s 13 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion) of new lending in the past 16 months, bigger than the economies of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong combined, is spurring industrial capacity expansion in the same way Japanese credit built inventory during and after World War I, Hendry said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-18/hugh-hendry-shorts-china-betting-on-1920s-japan-like-crash.html

China’s Bubble Waiting To Burst

FROM far away, the China Pavilion towers like an inverted red pyramid over everything else at the £30 billion World Expo 2010.
It is a symbol of growing Chinese confidence about the country’s rise in the global economy and the strength of its one-party political system.
The Expo is a far bigger economic event for China than the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with 10 times as many visitors and huge investments in the host city of Shanghai.
As many as 70m people, most of them Chinese, are expected to come. A million have already queued in the past 14 days to view their own nation’s grandiose display of power, wealth and civilisation.
“It’s wonderful,” said Siu Wei, 24, an engineer, “far better than any other country’s show. So let the whole world see China today.”
“Mind you,” said his girlfriend, “I really liked the British pavilion with the seeds because it had imagination — like, seeds are the source of life.”
He did not look convinced, even though both had just emerged from Britain’s distinctive £30m “seed cathedral” of delicate waving strands, each encasing a seed, like a giant fluffy ball.
For the hosts, Expo 2010 is about a triumph of will — not imagination.
Shanghai, China’s commercial capital, has transformed itself by pouring billions in state-ordained investment into new subways, flyovers, tunnels, bridges and airport terminals.
However, some economists dare to say the Expo may be a symbol both of China’s economic might and of flaws in its system.
According to Fan Yongming of Shanghai’s prestigious Fudan University, the Expo has accounted for half of the city’s fixed asset investment over the past eight years. Nobody is sure what will take its place.
That is exactly the dilemma facing China’s planners, who engineered a stunning 11.9% growth in the first three months of this year while Europe and America struggled with recession and debt.
Marc Faber, the bearish investor who peddles boom, doom and gloom in his reports, believes China could crash within 12 months as falling prices in stock and commodity markets indicate that a property bubble is about to burst.
Faber is unkind enough to point out that the 1873 world exhibition in Vienna was followed by a classic 19th century slump and depression.
He is among an emerging chorus of analysts who suggest China only saved itself from crashing exports and a recession at the price of a binge in state spending that overheated the economy and will lead to ruinous debts.
“It is the greatest bubble in history with the most massive misallocation of wealth,” said James Rickards, formerly of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management. He told a business summit in Hong Kong that stock market speculation on credit and wasteful spending by officials were disasters waiting to happen.
Rickards even said it is time to take China and Russia out of the investment-fashionable Brics grouping — coined by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs — because only Brazil and India are what he called “real economies”.
While Faber and Rickards may be mavericks, they have been joined by Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard and by Jim Chanos, a renowned hedge fund investor, in predicting that China could overheat and crash.
Rogoff said bursting the Chinese debt bubble would cause a recession throughout Asia in the next 10 years and Chanos warned that China was addicted to property development as a growth and revenue driver.
Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai who is closer to the market, said powerful interest groups have paralysed economic policy, and local governments survive financially by inflating the price of land — all of which they own.
State-owned companies are bingeing on low interest rates and do not want rates to rise. Exporters, backed by the powerful Commerce Ministry, refuse to countenance a rise in the yuan. Meanwhile, the spectre of inflation has returned to food markets in Chinese cities.
There was a perfect contradiction recently when Xie Xuren, the finance minister, said “the government is committed to expansionary policies for recovery” — just hours after the central bank tightened reserve requirements for banks.
A hawkish adviser to the central bank, Li Daokui, last week pressed the case for raising interest rates from the benchmark 2.5% one year deposit rate after consumer price inflation reached 2.8%. So far there has been no move.
Officials also seem to think they can stop the property juggernaut by piecemeal measures to cut speculation and increasing the supply of low-cost housing. But a recent study by HSBC said credit-fuelled demand exceeds supply and the frenzied momentum of the market has pushed the ratio of property values to GDP to levels approaching those of Japan in the 1980s.
Stepping outside the dreamworld of Expo on to Shanghai’s bustling streets, every third shop seems to have turned itself into an estate agency and newspapers are bursting with property advertisements.
Official statistics — which are unreliable — show house prices in Shanghai are rising at 11% a year but agents and local people say the reality is more like 50%.
Yet there is growing evidence that while the top rank of Chinese consumers are spending like never before, the wealth gap epitomised by the property market is dividing society and leading to trouble.
“Demolition and rebuilding amounted to 47% of fixed-asset investment over the last five years so China’s biggest city put half its investment into construction,” said Wang Lianli, a popular online economic analyst. “But the government forgot that people who live in these homes need jobs and livelihoods, not just a few industrial parks in the suburbs,” she said.
Even the spate of stabbings of children in schools over the past few weeks has been blamed by media commentators on mental pressure and despair among society’s losers.
Boosting domestic consumption and thus improving everyday life are aims urged on the Chinese government not only by some officials but by almost all of China’s foreign trade partners.
However, faction fighting in Beijing over the past two years has left advocates of the traditional low-wage, low-cost export strategy in commanding positions. There is no realistic sign of change.
Investors are beginning to sense that Chinese officials may not be able to realise their contradictory objectives — cooling the real estate market, curbing inflation, keeping growth above 8% and raising real wages — at the same time.
The first signals are coming through in the markets. The Shanghai composite index has been the worst performer in Asia this year.
Shares of the biggest banks, ICBC, Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have neared record lows because investors fear a replay of the bad debt banking crisis of the 1990s, which ended with a state bailout.
Despite all that, sagacious Chinese investors take a long view of their country’s development which is more in harmony with Expo’s message of a “better city, better life”.
“Yes, there are bubbles in some property markets but there will be strong demand because China is industrialising and people are moving into cities,” said Wang Yiwen, a Shanghai investment manager.
As he sat sipping rare tea — similar to that presented by President Hu Jintao to Russia’s Vladimir Putin — in a perfectly reproduced tea house set in a giant sports stadium for the comfort of the richest spectators, Wang reeled off some typically Chinese figures.
“On average, every year more than 10m farmers move to settle in cities,” he said, “and every year millions of graduates also need to settle down. All of them need to buy a house, with the family’s help if necessary.”
Wang said the recent decline of 20% in the stock market was due to heavy flotations that drained 600 billion yuan (£60.4 billion), a selloff in banks and property shares and the expectation that inflation and interest rates were both on the way up.
However, out there in the provinces of China’s hinterland are tens of millions who want the better life promised by Expo 2010 — and Wang is among those willing to bet that nothing will stop them.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/china/article7127675.ece

Paper Money Is Being Debased Everywhere - Jim Roger

All we can do is to put our money into real assets because paper money everywhere is being debased"Jim Roger in Bloomberg, May 13

Buffett bearish on currencies holding value

Events in the world over the last few years make me more bearish on all currencies in terms of holding their value over time," Warren Buffett. 01/05/2010

Green Shoot

Halo, Bro. Hope your have a good days, I am selling too early and too confidence to the
bearish of the financial market since April 2009. As you know that, DJI surge more than 30% within 3 month, I am missing the boat but manage to catch some local Oil & Gas Stock for the weekend pocket money, I am 90% in cash right now wait for next Trend of
the market, To me, U.S market traded at 15-16 PER consider is not cheap rite now in view
of US housing trouble still not fully settle yet. As a local (KLCI) stock also traded 14-15 PER also not cheap rite now in view of 50% of Malaysia economy are depend on external
demand, (i.e, export to US & Europe market).

I am not going to predict where market will go due to I always wrong but some of the data & economy indicator must be sharing with your.
1. The US personal saving rate increase from 0% (2004) to 6% present day.
2. The US economy still very much depend on it's domestic demand, 70% of GDP still
depend on Consumer of America.
3. The real family debt increase from 8.5% (2004) to 13% present day.
4. The real housing wealth decrese from 8% (2004) to 5.5% present day.
5. The price of Real Estate of US, i.e Case chiller home price indexs decrease about40% from the peak of 2005 till present day. nos sign of stablize due to the increase of Us treasury yield.
6. The 10 year US treasury increase from 2% to 3.51% within 4 month, the increase of
Medium & Long Term Us treasury may causing the Mortage rate will follow the path,
so happen that make houseowner of US difficult to refinance their Home loan.
7. More than 60% of US Houseowners are 负资产，i.e, value of Homeloan more than
value of house.
8. The US unployment increse to 9.6%, estimated 10% by end of 2009
9. Credit Card loss rate increase to all time high 8.1%.

From the above data, i m hardly to convicting myself to believe there is 'GreenShoot'.
in the economy of US. But why worldwide market surge more than 30%?

My opinion the main reason of the cheap money provided by Worldwide central bank loan to commercial bank are directly flow to stock market, I am underestimate the power of liquidity & velocity of hot money in the worldwide financial market can be REFLATE the price of the assets in such magnitute. This is the reason why I overweight on Oil & Gas/ Commodities sector April 2009.

What mistake i have beed done? Why I missed the Big Boat rite now?
Bcos I not understand Guy & Dog theory by André Kostolany, Legendary Investor of German.

有一个男子带着狗在街上散步，像所有的狗一样，这狗先跑到前面，再回到主人身边。接着，又跑到前面，看到自己跑得太远．又再折回来。整个过程里，狗就这样反反复复。最后，他俩同时抵达终点，男子悠闲地走了一公里，而狗跑来跑去，走了四公里。男子就是经济，狗则是证券市场。”- 安德烈‧科斯托蘭尼

Second Mistake - I try to predict the market by my own analysis. As for the investor,
no body will predict the market 100% correctly but we can follow the trend instead of
predict the market. Nobody in this world will buy the lowest & selling highest. Bcos

Markets are never wrong - opinions often are - Jesse Livermore

Both of the above 2 guys dead long time ago, but their way still useful. Why?
Bcos Human never Change. Greed & Fear of Human Being never Change.
My own 'Crocodile & Retailer' theory still can apply to the today market.
Lot of the penny stock surge more than 300% within 2 month like Lioncor, Liondiv & Uemland. Who able to lift up the share price to such extend? U? Me? Fund Manager?
No, No, No..... All is how the Speculator (the proxy of Director) used Stock Market to
Cari Makan. Fear of Human causing investor to dump lioncor till RM0.15, Greed send Lioncor sky rocket to RM0.58 less than one month. Yesterday, The edge weekly reported
that William Cheng willing to merge Lioncor with Liondiv to create the SEA biggest steel maker, Why the share price never go up instead of go down? 2 Reason.

1. Buy on Rumours, Sell on News - Rule no.1 of Goreng Share.

& again

2. Markets are never wrong - opinions often are.

MAS, Malaysia Airline System, Reported huge losses last quarter, price of MAS manage holding steady from RM2.90-RM3.10 after the quarter result even the
breakout of H1N1. It's peer, Airasia, Tony's Baby, A very good publicity & highly
been know that well managed company, Sliping from RM1.36 to RM1.12 after reported best ever quarter result. Why? 3 Reason.

1. Buy on Rumours, Sell on News - Rule no.1 of Goreng Share.
2. Markets are never wrong - opinions often are.
3. Airasia have RM8 billion debt & MAS have 3.5 Billion cash in the coffer.

Next week I will further discuss the next My own 'Trend' for second half of 2009. I already
miss out the 2Q2009 Commodities/Oil & Gas trend, & i don't want to miss out again.

Remember, Trend is the money will flow into certain class of assets by fund.
Trend shall be support by fundalmental of economy & the policy of Cental Bank.

There is still have a room to make marney in the Bear Market if u successful
to indentify of next trend. But. lot of homework have to do.

向投资高手学习—趋势大师篇

俗话说，读万卷书不如行万里路，行万里路不如阅人无数，阅人无数不如高人指路。站在巨人的肩膀上, 矮子也可以看得比巨人更远!

最伟大的股票和期货投机人杰西·利弗莫尔

业界地位：

20世纪初期华尔街最伟大的股票和期货投机人、交易奇才、熊市杀手。杰西的支持者与反对者只在一个问题上达成了共识：杰西确实是杰出的操盘手。

名言:

华尔街永不改变。钱袋会变，投机者会变，股票会变，但华尔街永不改变，因为人性永不改变。

警惕所有的所谓内部消息。试想，如果有那么容易挣到的钱，怎么还会有人让它掉进你的腰包。

股市只有一面，不是多头或空头的一面，而是正确的一面。

大盘价格的波动当然都有理由，但是大盘不会去管原因和理由，也不会花精神去解释。

买卖从来就没有任何差别。

我操作一种系统，而不是操作一支喜爱的股票，也不是操作支持我买卖背后的意见，我只知道其中的算术。

投机是世界上最刺激的游戏。懒惰的人、愚蠢的人、心智发育不平衡的人、妄想一夜暴富的人是不可能参与的。

利润会自己集聚起来，而损失却不会。投机者期望规避大的损失，就必须从规避一个个小的损失做起。

在我看来，投资者都是下注的赌徒。一旦下错注，他们就会输个精光。

绝不要摊低亏损头寸。

关心把事情做正确，而不关心赚钱。

证券界向来是顶级天才的汇集地和表演天才的大舞台。

他每天多次检查股票，将注意力集中在问题上，而不是成功上。

他立足于短钱，认为10%、15%的收益积累起来要比囤积股票来日待涨要可靠的多。他觉得这种所谓的长期投资的收益是比较虚无的，等到长期投资的股票赚到钱以后，短线上获利金钱已经摆在那里一年了。

犯错要尽早。下了决定立即实施，并不停地校正该决策。

永远做你喜欢的事来营生。走这样的路，你的执著才能够确保长期成功的幸福感，而非短暂投机后的空虚。

保持相对机敏。要随时研究能带来财富的一切领域，要比别人更早感知大势的变化。

即使信息不充分也要尽量做恰当的决定。许多信息都是无用的，关键是，怎么把握现有的信息，把焦点集中到最重要的问题上。

永远相信你的直觉。经验是一种财富，不得不承认，直觉也是经验的累积，关键是如何在直觉和经验间取得平衡。

不做小投资。人的时间和精力有限，冒险投资的时候，要确保回报足以补偿支出。