炒股切忌丢了西瓜

全球股市一个劲的暴跌，很多股民开始吃不消了。在此，老话重提，炒股最重要的是心态，收起贪嗔痴才能戒定慧，没有心态的平和不但股炒不好，生活也会受其困扰，到头来是赔了夫人又折兵，实在不划算。做任何事，得失总是难免，其实仔细想来得无所得、失无所失，人本身就一臭皮囊，一切皆身外之物，两腿一蹬一切皆空，为这种无聊的事情纠结实在是太不划算的事情。事情能不能成除了人算还有天算，所以得失得失，得亦是失，失亦是得。股市上，亏钱不亏心境和身体那就是小亏，亏钱把身心都亏了那是绝对大亏。不以物喜，不以己悲，才是理财真境界

聪明人

昨日提到聰明人賺錢，普通人要止蝕的問題，惹起網友不同回應，網友牛腩貓咪講到:「1. 止蝕結果只有一個:賠錢，正常人不想損失。2. 止蝕即代表認錯， 正常人不喜歡認錯。3. 止蝕完，轉頭可能即時反彈，變成雙重損失。正常人無可以接受。不幸地，不正常是市場上的重點----逆向!」

而大笨袋鼠更提出理論解釋，話「『展望理論』(Prospect Theory) 認為人們的決策動機是他們對得與失的認定的價值，當中使用了loss aversion(迴避損失)慨念，損失所帶來的痛苦遠大於獲利所帶來的快樂。損失5舊(500元)的痛苦大於獲利5舊的快樂。」

我諗他們講普通人迴避損失的心理，就是人們炒股時不想止蝕的原因，但炒股若不止蝕又無任何控制風險的方法，恐怕是必輸的遊戲，因為講得叫炒，無論係炒窩、炒期指、炒期權、炒可能大升的二三線股，風險必大，若無控制的方法，你贏9次都無用，只要第10次是一次致命的沒頂之災，就可以把你淹沒，你頭9次愈係贏得勁，第10次愈係心雄，愈死得慘。所以止蝕一啲問題都無，唔想止蝕，唔係遇事時唔止蝕，而係盡量避免要走入止蝕的處境中。

牛腩貓咪講到一個重要的概念: 逆向，但也要正確了解這個概念。炒先炒作要講順勢，不是逆勢，例如美元如今是超強勢，睇走勢的系統會建議「強烈買入」，你如果懶逆向，逆勢沽出，可以輸到好慘，可以輸到你頂唔順打靶，美元才弱番。所以逆向不等如逆勢，逆向是逆群眾之向，不是逆股市之勢。你覺得美元最終會轉番弱，唔好即刻入市大注沽，你應該企在旁邊等，見去有少少回頭走勢，可以放點小注去試盤沽，若再升即止蝕。若試完盤沽出後美元開始向下，慢慢變成順勢時，可以加注沽，呢個就係有一種逆向睇法，但係順勢去做。

我講突然有消息的處境，例如講炒業績，假設有一班聰明人，估到、甚至知道一個公司將會公布怎樣的好業績，他們在業績公布前一兩個星期前買入，結果真係宣布好業績，他們作為短炒者，好可能在消息曝光第二日早上開市，股份大力抽高時，佢地就沽貨出街，最多普通人想買的時候，就是聰明人大手出貨的最好時候，這隻股份的所有短線表現，在消息公布的第二日早上10時的幾分鐘內已完全體現。

你可能即刻會駁我，有些好股，公布完業績抽升後回一回，過一兩日又會重拾升勢。這完全不是奇怪的事，但已換了一批買家。短炒的聰明人退了場，短炒的普通人接了貨，隻股回番一兩日，短炒的普通人頂唔順打了靶或者怕悶離了場，中長線投資者等靜番先至才入場，這是另一場遊戲，長線投資者如果真係有料到，佢睇緊公司明年、後年的盈利增長，當短炒的群眾退場時，也是一個逆向機會，俾無內幕的長線投資者進場，我經常話長線投資者唔好高追，就係呢個原因。

新时期识别主力未出局的基本诀窍

空没有留下任何，但，鸟已飞过。
雁过无声的意境总是如此。

股市中，主力对一只个股的操作不会了无痕迹。

先主力启动之前入局，在主力抛售前离开，这是短线投资的绝妙所在。问题是，任何主力都不会轻易暴露出自己建仓或出货的痕迹，否则就等于是自杀，同理，我们能够得出一个结论，如果一只股票的主力刻意暴露自己的行踪和意图，必须注意，它已经要开始诱人上当了。

有一千只股票，就有一千种坐庄，做盘的手法，一味照搬教科书式的理论，无疑有刻舟求剑或守株待兔的味道。

当前，A股市场遇到史无前例的大小非减持问题，市场总筹码悄然改变，除主力和散户外，又多了一个第三者，因此，判断主力进出的基本方法，必须有新思维和新方法。

新时期，也可以说是全流通时期，如何判断一只个股主力没有出局呢？

第一：趋势总是大涨小回，底部不断抬高。这个识别方法是技术上的重要手段，股票运行的方式有上涨、下跌、横盘这三种，一只股票中主力没有出局的重要识别方式就是任何一次下跌形成的新的低点不会低于以往一个时期的次低位置，这说明，主力不容许市场成本低于自己的持仓成本，否则就应该理解为主力不计成本出走。

第二：中长期均线系统必须是多头排列。其用意是，主力资金的长期护盘结果，好的技术形态利于个股股价推高，容易树立良好的市场口碑，盘口买卖活跃，才能够利于主力出货和派发，很难想象，一只技术形态不完美的个股，主力做庄的难度会是如何，当然，这一点在洗盘阶段除外。即使有跌破重要的技术位置，主力也会在不久的时间里有效收复。

第三：整体趋势强于大盘。用简单的文字描述就是，大盘上涨的时候，个股涨幅大于大盘同期涨幅，而大势向坏或下跌的时候，以横盘或小幅调整代替。

以上三点是识别主力没有出局的基本诀窍。当然，以往总结的其他方式，像成交量（换手率）、趋势线、是否出现衰竭性缺口、股票价格短期涨幅大小、市场消息利多是否增加等等，都是辅助识别方式，考虑到市场主力手法诡异多变，最有效的识别方式当为以上三点了。

只要以上重要识别方式没有发生改变，投资者不妨任由主力震仓、洗盘，安心迎接强庄股的一个个新高出现

下半年最具翻番能力的股票

下半年最具翻番能力的股票
http://blog.sina.com.cn/u/1216826604

2010年上半年已经成为过去,以大盘指数的表现来看,上半年能获得收益的投资者并不多.按晒晒2010年上半年的收益晒晒2010年上半年的收益的选项来看,上半年整体亏损的投资者达80%,盈利的只占少部分.

那么,下半年最具翻番能力的股票有吗?适合在什么板块寻找?
1.新能源(电池.太阳能.风电.核电)
2.新材料
3.节能环保
4.智能电网
5.高铁(设备.技术)
6.科技创新(信息技术.智能技术.生物技术.软件技术等)

操作中投资者要记住的是:只低买,不追高.并选择盘子袖珍,成长率高的品种.预计创业板和中小企业板会继续成为2010年(中报或年报)高送转股的基地.也将是下半年最具翻番能力的牛股基地.



封起De日子
http://blog.sina.com.cn/fengqiderizi


近期有关大盘指数运行的说明文字多了点。其实，中小投资者没有必要那样看重大盘，毕竟这些资金不是买卖的指数，不是靠股指赚钱，还是前期说过的一个观点：精心、细心做个股。

做主力做多、技术形态良好，趋势通道健康的个股；
做国家产业政策鼓励扶植朝阳行业的个股；
做具有核心技术垄断或稀缺资源垄断的优质股；
做业绩有望持续高成长的小盘优质含权股。

4.19持续大跌的时候说过一句话，那些有主力资金看护，有长庄运行的优质股是根本不会跌回今年年初的价格的，现在，它们不都又创出新的反弹新高了吗。

在昨天给某博友的公开留言封起说：“大盘走大盘的趋势，但是，个股机会重在把握”。

重技术，学技术，但是，不惟技术；
看指数，看大盘，但是，更应看趋势；

大盘趋势是坏的，但是，某些个股的趋势是好的；
同样，在大盘趋势转好的时候，某些个股趋势却是坏坏的；

这些现象，这些问题都是客观存在的。
即使大盘下跌到某个安全区域，可是，投资者买进的是即将退市的股票，或者是长期趋势一直向坏的股票，那样同样没有希望，甚至是绝望。

曹仁超语录

分析员都知道股市、衍生市场、债券、外汇、黄金及房地产是互相影响，一个地区或国家的市场又可影响其他地区或国家市场的表现。但每一个分析员只拥有有限度的前景展望能力(最精明的分析员亦只能估计未来三个月方向，没有一个人可拥有三百六十度视野)，甚至政府亦没有神仙棒可指挥一切。
我们只能用智慧取代贪念与恐惧，制订投资策略总胜过做盲头乌蝇。作为投资者必须严守纪律、捕捉机会、逃避风险、不可死牛一边颈(勇于认错)、随形势改变而改变自己看法、收起自己的傲慢与偏见，以及一旦形势不利及时止蚀离场，有时更要逆向思维，因大部分专家的分析皆受市场气氛影响──见好睇好、见淡睇淡。

Financial Ratio

流动比率（Current Ratio）

流动比率也称营运资金比率（Working Capital Ratio）或真实比率（Real Ratio），是指企业流动资产与流动负债的比率。流动比率和速动比率都是反映企业短期偿债能力的指标。
　　一般说来，这两个比率越高，说明企业资产的变现能力越强，短期偿债能力亦越强；反之则弱。一般认为流动比率应在2：1以上，速动比率应在1：1以上。流动比率2：1，表示流动资产是流动负债的两倍，即使流动资产有一半在短期内不能变现，也能保证全部的流动负债得到偿还；速动比率1：1，表示现金等具有即时变现能力的速动资产与流动负债相等，可以随时偿付全部流动负债。当然，不同行业经营情况不同，其流动比率和速动比率的正常标准会有所不同。应当说明的是，这两个比率并非越高越好。流动比率过高，即流动资产相对于流动负债太多，可能是存货积压，也可能是持有现金太多，或者两者兼而有之；速动比率过高，即速动资产相对于流动负债太多，说明现金持有太多。企业的存货积压，说明企业经营不善，存货可能存在问题；现金持有太多，说明企业不善理财，资金利用效率低下。

流动比率=流动资产÷流动负债


速动比率（Quick Ratio）

速动比率是指速动资产对流动负债的比率。它是衡量企业流动资产中可以立即变现用于偿还流动负债的能力。
　　速动资产包括货币资金、短期投资、应收票据、预付账款、应收账款、其他应收款项等，可以在较短时间内变现。而流动资产中存货、1年内到期的非流动资产及其他流动资产等则不应计入。

速动比率=速动资产/流动负债
　　其中：速动资产=流动资产-存货
　　或：速动资产=流动资产-存货-预付账款-待摊费用


净资产收益率（Rate of Return on Common Stockholders' Equity，ROE/Profit Margin on Net Assets）

净资产收益率定义

　　净资产收益率又称股东权益报酬率/净值报酬率/权益报酬率/权益利润率/净资产利润率，是衡量上市公司盈利能力的重要指标。是指利润额与平均股东权益的比值，该指标越高，说明投资带来的收益越高；净资产收益率越低，说明企业所有者权益的获利能力越弱。该指标体现了自有资本获得净收益的能力。
　　一般来说，负债增加会导致净资产收益率的上升。
　　企业资产包括了两部分，一部分是股东的投资，即所有者权益（它是股东投入的股本，企业公积金和留存收益等的总和），另一部分是企业借入和暂时占用的资金。企业适当的运用财务杠杆可以提高资金的使用效率，借入的资金过多会增大企业的财务风险，但一般可以提高盈利，借入的资金过少会降低资金的使用效率。净资产收益率是衡量股东资金使用效率的重要财务指标。

净资产收益率的计算公式
其计算公式为：
　　净资产收益率=净利润/平均净资产×100%


淨邊際利潤率 (Net Profit Margin)
淨邊際利潤率 = 稅後純利 / 營業額


經營邊際利潤率 (Operating Profit Margin)
經營邊際利潤率 = 經營溢利 / 營業額


存貨週轉率 (Inventory Turnover)
存貨週轉率 = 營業額 / 平均存貨


資產週轉率 (Assets Turnover)
資產週轉率 = 營業額 / 總資產

筛选强势股的四道程序

筛选强势股，有如下四道程序：

第一程序：把经过长期下跌，跌幅超过50%以上，远离历史套牢盘，股票价格在2-5元之间，最近两个月无大比例解禁股上市、流通股本在1.5亿以下的个股全部集中。

第二程序：在前一道程序筛选结果里，挑选出股价接连收阴，单日换手率在2-4%之间，连续两个月换手率超过200%品种。

第三程序：以上两种特点的个股突然从某一天开始连续小幅拉高，连收3天以上阳线，但是，整体涨幅不大，预示这样的个股进入目标伏击对象。

第四程序：盘中频繁出现百手以上的整数买单，股价对敲上拉，再大的卖盘也被消灭，此时必须第一时间跟涨。

辅助原则：

通常强势股在上拉第一个涨停板的时候，会故意把涨停打开，显示盘中买盘无力的假象，诱使获利盘抛售，在随后不久的时间里，主力再次以大单封住涨停，盘中卖压开始逐步消失。

对这样的个股，通常以10日线为持股原则，此类强势股通常不会轻易跌破10日线，随后的拉抬过程中，5日均线呈散发状态向上扬升，能够连拉两个涨停还不出现大的成交量的品种，后期还可以继续逼空，因此，日K线不现大阴线，成交量不放大到15%以上，10日均线不破位掉头，可以继续安心持有。

通常计算这样的个股上涨幅度有三种方式：

1：矩形整理、上升三角形、旗型整理形态的品种，幅度以起点最低价格×2。
2：中级以上反弹中可以使用倍增数，也就是翻番。
3：次反弹中，可以参考50%值，如发现突破这个数值仍然不放量者，应该继续看高。

此类股往往有利多消息和题材兑现，一旦题材兑现和见光，应该提前离场观望。

华尔街证券书店的格言

“在风险市场的投资活动中，规避和防范风险是第一要务，也是取得长期成功的保障，顺应价格运动趋势从而顺势而为是第二要务，也是市场生存的不二法则，牢牢把握这二点是走向投资成功之路的必备前提”。这是华尔街证券书店的格言，我们应该好好牢记。

Malaysia Super-Genius Politician on Inflation

After a few year, when the global inflation running out of control,

And they start panicking the whole world follows with the exception of some clueless Malaysian politicians who thought they’re still living in a lonely island.

while char keow theow in Gurney Drive already increase from Rm4.00 to Rm8.00 per plate.

Yes, there is no inflation in Malaysia. If got also very mild 1 lah. and

No “hyperinflation” to coming. Sugar & petrol will not increase, we will subsidy that. don't worry about that.

1 week later. They annouce to increase petrol Rm1.90 to RM2.70/litre.

Malaysia Boleh!

Haha...

Hugh Hendry Shorts China, Betting on 1920s Japan-Like Crash

British hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry is betting China’s “credit bubble” will burst, causing its economy to contract and triggering a global crisis.

Hendry’s Eclectica Asset Management has bought options on 20 companies in international markets that will profit from “a dramatic collapse” of China’s growth that’s been fueled by an unprecedented lending boom, Hendry said in a May 17 telephone interview from London.

Hendry joins hedge fund manager James Chanos and Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff in warning of a potential crash in China.

The nation’s 13 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion) of new lending in the past 16 months, bigger than the economies of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong combined, is spurring industrial capacity expansion in the same way Japanese credit built inventory during and after World War I, Hendry said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-18/hugh-hendry-shorts-china-betting-on-1920s-japan-like-crash.html

China’s Bubble Waiting To Burst

FROM far away, the China Pavilion towers like an inverted red pyramid over everything else at the £30 billion World Expo 2010.
It is a symbol of growing Chinese confidence about the country’s rise in the global economy and the strength of its one-party political system.
The Expo is a far bigger economic event for China than the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with 10 times as many visitors and huge investments in the host city of Shanghai.
As many as 70m people, most of them Chinese, are expected to come. A million have already queued in the past 14 days to view their own nation’s grandiose display of power, wealth and civilisation.
“It’s wonderful,” said Siu Wei, 24, an engineer, “far better than any other country’s show. So let the whole world see China today.”
“Mind you,” said his girlfriend, “I really liked the British pavilion with the seeds because it had imagination — like, seeds are the source of life.”
He did not look convinced, even though both had just emerged from Britain’s distinctive £30m “seed cathedral” of delicate waving strands, each encasing a seed, like a giant fluffy ball.
For the hosts, Expo 2010 is about a triumph of will — not imagination.
Shanghai, China’s commercial capital, has transformed itself by pouring billions in state-ordained investment into new subways, flyovers, tunnels, bridges and airport terminals.
However, some economists dare to say the Expo may be a symbol both of China’s economic might and of flaws in its system.
According to Fan Yongming of Shanghai’s prestigious Fudan University, the Expo has accounted for half of the city’s fixed asset investment over the past eight years. Nobody is sure what will take its place.
That is exactly the dilemma facing China’s planners, who engineered a stunning 11.9% growth in the first three months of this year while Europe and America struggled with recession and debt.
Marc Faber, the bearish investor who peddles boom, doom and gloom in his reports, believes China could crash within 12 months as falling prices in stock and commodity markets indicate that a property bubble is about to burst.
Faber is unkind enough to point out that the 1873 world exhibition in Vienna was followed by a classic 19th century slump and depression.
He is among an emerging chorus of analysts who suggest China only saved itself from crashing exports and a recession at the price of a binge in state spending that overheated the economy and will lead to ruinous debts.
“It is the greatest bubble in history with the most massive misallocation of wealth,” said James Rickards, formerly of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management. He told a business summit in Hong Kong that stock market speculation on credit and wasteful spending by officials were disasters waiting to happen.
Rickards even said it is time to take China and Russia out of the investment-fashionable Brics grouping — coined by Jim O’Neill of Goldman Sachs — because only Brazil and India are what he called “real economies”.
While Faber and Rickards may be mavericks, they have been joined by Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard and by Jim Chanos, a renowned hedge fund investor, in predicting that China could overheat and crash.
Rogoff said bursting the Chinese debt bubble would cause a recession throughout Asia in the next 10 years and Chanos warned that China was addicted to property development as a growth and revenue driver.
Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai who is closer to the market, said powerful interest groups have paralysed economic policy, and local governments survive financially by inflating the price of land — all of which they own.
State-owned companies are bingeing on low interest rates and do not want rates to rise. Exporters, backed by the powerful Commerce Ministry, refuse to countenance a rise in the yuan. Meanwhile, the spectre of inflation has returned to food markets in Chinese cities.
There was a perfect contradiction recently when Xie Xuren, the finance minister, said “the government is committed to expansionary policies for recovery” — just hours after the central bank tightened reserve requirements for banks.
A hawkish adviser to the central bank, Li Daokui, last week pressed the case for raising interest rates from the benchmark 2.5% one year deposit rate after consumer price inflation reached 2.8%. So far there has been no move.
Officials also seem to think they can stop the property juggernaut by piecemeal measures to cut speculation and increasing the supply of low-cost housing. But a recent study by HSBC said credit-fuelled demand exceeds supply and the frenzied momentum of the market has pushed the ratio of property values to GDP to levels approaching those of Japan in the 1980s.
Stepping outside the dreamworld of Expo on to Shanghai’s bustling streets, every third shop seems to have turned itself into an estate agency and newspapers are bursting with property advertisements.
Official statistics — which are unreliable — show house prices in Shanghai are rising at 11% a year but agents and local people say the reality is more like 50%.
Yet there is growing evidence that while the top rank of Chinese consumers are spending like never before, the wealth gap epitomised by the property market is dividing society and leading to trouble.
“Demolition and rebuilding amounted to 47% of fixed-asset investment over the last five years so China’s biggest city put half its investment into construction,” said Wang Lianli, a popular online economic analyst. “But the government forgot that people who live in these homes need jobs and livelihoods, not just a few industrial parks in the suburbs,” she said.
Even the spate of stabbings of children in schools over the past few weeks has been blamed by media commentators on mental pressure and despair among society’s losers.
Boosting domestic consumption and thus improving everyday life are aims urged on the Chinese government not only by some officials but by almost all of China’s foreign trade partners.
However, faction fighting in Beijing over the past two years has left advocates of the traditional low-wage, low-cost export strategy in commanding positions. There is no realistic sign of change.
Investors are beginning to sense that Chinese officials may not be able to realise their contradictory objectives — cooling the real estate market, curbing inflation, keeping growth above 8% and raising real wages — at the same time.
The first signals are coming through in the markets. The Shanghai composite index has been the worst performer in Asia this year.
Shares of the biggest banks, ICBC, Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have neared record lows because investors fear a replay of the bad debt banking crisis of the 1990s, which ended with a state bailout.
Despite all that, sagacious Chinese investors take a long view of their country’s development which is more in harmony with Expo’s message of a “better city, better life”.
“Yes, there are bubbles in some property markets but there will be strong demand because China is industrialising and people are moving into cities,” said Wang Yiwen, a Shanghai investment manager.
As he sat sipping rare tea — similar to that presented by President Hu Jintao to Russia’s Vladimir Putin — in a perfectly reproduced tea house set in a giant sports stadium for the comfort of the richest spectators, Wang reeled off some typically Chinese figures.
“On average, every year more than 10m farmers move to settle in cities,” he said, “and every year millions of graduates also need to settle down. All of them need to buy a house, with the family’s help if necessary.”
Wang said the recent decline of 20% in the stock market was due to heavy flotations that drained 600 billion yuan (£60.4 billion), a selloff in banks and property shares and the expectation that inflation and interest rates were both on the way up.
However, out there in the provinces of China’s hinterland are tens of millions who want the better life promised by Expo 2010 — and Wang is among those willing to bet that nothing will stop them.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/china/article7127675.ece

Paper Money Is Being Debased Everywhere - Jim Roger

All we can do is to put our money into real assets because paper money everywhere is being debased"Jim Roger in Bloomberg, May 13

Buffett bearish on currencies holding value

Events in the world over the last few years make me more bearish on all currencies in terms of holding their value over time," Warren Buffett. 01/05/2010

Green Shoot

Halo, Bro. Hope your have a good days, I am selling too early and too confidence to the
bearish of the financial market since April 2009. As you know that, DJI surge more than 30% within 3 month, I am missing the boat but manage to catch some local Oil & Gas Stock for the weekend pocket money, I am 90% in cash right now wait for next Trend of
the market, To me, U.S market traded at 15-16 PER consider is not cheap rite now in view
of US housing trouble still not fully settle yet. As a local (KLCI) stock also traded 14-15 PER also not cheap rite now in view of 50% of Malaysia economy are depend on external
demand, (i.e, export to US & Europe market).

I am not going to predict where market will go due to I always wrong but some of the data & economy indicator must be sharing with your.
1. The US personal saving rate increase from 0% (2004) to 6% present day.
2. The US economy still very much depend on it's domestic demand, 70% of GDP still
depend on Consumer of America.
3. The real family debt increase from 8.5% (2004) to 13% present day.
4. The real housing wealth decrese from 8% (2004) to 5.5% present day.
5. The price of Real Estate of US, i.e Case chiller home price indexs decrease about40% from the peak of 2005 till present day. nos sign of stablize due to the increase of Us treasury yield.
6. The 10 year US treasury increase from 2% to 3.51% within 4 month, the increase of
Medium & Long Term Us treasury may causing the Mortage rate will follow the path,
so happen that make houseowner of US difficult to refinance their Home loan.
7. More than 60% of US Houseowners are 负资产，i.e, value of Homeloan more than
value of house.
8. The US unployment increse to 9.6%, estimated 10% by end of 2009
9. Credit Card loss rate increase to all time high 8.1%.

From the above data, i m hardly to convicting myself to believe there is 'GreenShoot'.
in the economy of US. But why worldwide market surge more than 30%?

My opinion the main reason of the cheap money provided by Worldwide central bank loan to commercial bank are directly flow to stock market, I am underestimate the power of liquidity & velocity of hot money in the worldwide financial market can be REFLATE the price of the assets in such magnitute. This is the reason why I overweight on Oil & Gas/ Commodities sector April 2009.

What mistake i have beed done? Why I missed the Big Boat rite now?
Bcos I not understand Guy & Dog theory by André Kostolany, Legendary Investor of German.

有一个男子带着狗在街上散步，像所有的狗一样，这狗先跑到前面，再回到主人身边。接着，又跑到前面，看到自己跑得太远．又再折回来。整个过程里，狗就这样反反复复。最后，他俩同时抵达终点，男子悠闲地走了一公里，而狗跑来跑去，走了四公里。男子就是经济，狗则是证券市场。”- 安德烈‧科斯托蘭尼

Second Mistake - I try to predict the market by my own analysis. As for the investor,
no body will predict the market 100% correctly but we can follow the trend instead of
predict the market. Nobody in this world will buy the lowest & selling highest. Bcos

Markets are never wrong - opinions often are - Jesse Livermore

Both of the above 2 guys dead long time ago, but their way still useful. Why?
Bcos Human never Change. Greed & Fear of Human Being never Change.
My own 'Crocodile & Retailer' theory still can apply to the today market.
Lot of the penny stock surge more than 300% within 2 month like Lioncor, Liondiv & Uemland. Who able to lift up the share price to such extend? U? Me? Fund Manager?
No, No, No..... All is how the Speculator (the proxy of Director) used Stock Market to
Cari Makan. Fear of Human causing investor to dump lioncor till RM0.15, Greed send Lioncor sky rocket to RM0.58 less than one month. Yesterday, The edge weekly reported
that William Cheng willing to merge Lioncor with Liondiv to create the SEA biggest steel maker, Why the share price never go up instead of go down? 2 Reason.

1. Buy on Rumours, Sell on News - Rule no.1 of Goreng Share.

& again

2. Markets are never wrong - opinions often are.

MAS, Malaysia Airline System, Reported huge losses last quarter, price of MAS manage holding steady from RM2.90-RM3.10 after the quarter result even the
breakout of H1N1. It's peer, Airasia, Tony's Baby, A very good publicity & highly
been know that well managed company, Sliping from RM1.36 to RM1.12 after reported best ever quarter result. Why? 3 Reason.

1. Buy on Rumours, Sell on News - Rule no.1 of Goreng Share.
2. Markets are never wrong - opinions often are.
3. Airasia have RM8 billion debt & MAS have 3.5 Billion cash in the coffer.

Next week I will further discuss the next My own 'Trend' for second half of 2009. I already
miss out the 2Q2009 Commodities/Oil & Gas trend, & i don't want to miss out again.

Remember, Trend is the money will flow into certain class of assets by fund.
Trend shall be support by fundalmental of economy & the policy of Cental Bank.

There is still have a room to make marney in the Bear Market if u successful
to indentify of next trend. But. lot of homework have to do.

向投资高手学习—趋势大师篇

俗话说，读万卷书不如行万里路，行万里路不如阅人无数，阅人无数不如高人指路。站在巨人的肩膀上, 矮子也可以看得比巨人更远!

最伟大的股票和期货投机人杰西·利弗莫尔

业界地位：

20世纪初期华尔街最伟大的股票和期货投机人、交易奇才、熊市杀手。杰西的支持者与反对者只在一个问题上达成了共识：杰西确实是杰出的操盘手。

名言:

华尔街永不改变。钱袋会变，投机者会变，股票会变，但华尔街永不改变，因为人性永不改变。

警惕所有的所谓内部消息。试想，如果有那么容易挣到的钱，怎么还会有人让它掉进你的腰包。

股市只有一面，不是多头或空头的一面，而是正确的一面。

大盘价格的波动当然都有理由，但是大盘不会去管原因和理由，也不会花精神去解释。

买卖从来就没有任何差别。

我操作一种系统，而不是操作一支喜爱的股票，也不是操作支持我买卖背后的意见，我只知道其中的算术。

投机是世界上最刺激的游戏。懒惰的人、愚蠢的人、心智发育不平衡的人、妄想一夜暴富的人是不可能参与的。

利润会自己集聚起来，而损失却不会。投机者期望规避大的损失，就必须从规避一个个小的损失做起。

在我看来，投资者都是下注的赌徒。一旦下错注，他们就会输个精光。

绝不要摊低亏损头寸。

关心把事情做正确，而不关心赚钱。

证券界向来是顶级天才的汇集地和表演天才的大舞台。

他每天多次检查股票，将注意力集中在问题上，而不是成功上。

他立足于短钱，认为10%、15%的收益积累起来要比囤积股票来日待涨要可靠的多。他觉得这种所谓的长期投资的收益是比较虚无的，等到长期投资的股票赚到钱以后，短线上获利金钱已经摆在那里一年了。

犯错要尽早。下了决定立即实施，并不停地校正该决策。

永远做你喜欢的事来营生。走这样的路，你的执著才能够确保长期成功的幸福感，而非短暂投机后的空虚。

保持相对机敏。要随时研究能带来财富的一切领域，要比别人更早感知大势的变化。

即使信息不充分也要尽量做恰当的决定。许多信息都是无用的，关键是，怎么把握现有的信息，把焦点集中到最重要的问题上。

永远相信你的直觉。经验是一种财富，不得不承认，直觉也是经验的累积，关键是如何在直觉和经验间取得平衡。

不做小投资。人的时间和精力有限，冒险投资的时候，要确保回报足以补偿支出。

安德烈·科斯托兰尼

擅长投机的德国股市无冕之王安德烈·科斯托兰尼是德国的巴菲特、证券界教父、20世纪的股票见证人、本世纪金融史上最成功的投资大师之一。

他的投机生涯自从十向岁接触股票后开始，安德烈·科斯托兰尼就像染上毒瘾一样，从此深深的为投机的刺激和风险所着迷，有将近八十年的时间他都是在与各样的股票、债券、货币、期货等商品打交道，而且热此不疲，他也一直以投机者自居，且深以为傲。

在他一生当中共写了13本有关投资、证券、货币、财富、证券心理学的书，书中写了他在股市上的巨大成功也写了他的巨大失败，但都是要实实在在的告诉读者自己所走过的旅程。

发财和破产紧紧相依。

证券交易所：对某些人来说，意味着财富，对某些人来说，却意味着毁灭。言辞尖刻的人说，魔鬼创造了证券交易所。

许多外行人总是称证券市场是经济的温度计，其实不然。证券市场无法显示当前的经济状况，也预测不了未来经济的发展趋势。

他认为，长远来看，经济和证券市场的发展方向相同，但在过程中，却有可能选择完全相反的方向。指数有什么道理，这里一切取决于一件事，就看是傻瓜比股票多，还是股票比傻瓜多。每天，证券评论员都费尽心思解释当天指数的变化素却难以胜数。利率提高，股价下跌；然而影响指数上扬或下跌的因利润高过预期，XY的指数便可能看涨，而ABC的股票却下跌，因为尽管利润高过预期，专家却看到该企业面临艰困的未来。而下一份报纸的评论却指出，同一档股票指数下跌的原因在于获利了结。另一天，美元坚挺是指数上扬的原因，但第二天，在同一份报纸的评论中，美元是指数下跌的关键。对投机人士来说，这些评论完全多余，而且毫无用处。专家引用报章评论，寻找合乎逻辑的因素，但证券市场有自己的逻辑，和普通消费者的逻辑没有什么关系。

证券市场像漂亮的女人或天气一样任性，擅长利用各种光怪陆离

的魔术吸引猎物，大家对其不抱希望时，证券市场也一样冷淡对待。我建议大家应该冷静，不要在意证券市场喜怒无常的脾气，尤其不要为此寻找合乎逻辑的解释。评论员可能局限于三个因素，因为供过于求．证券交易走势疲软；或因为需求大于供给，证券交易行情坚挺，或因为供需平衡，证券交易没有变化。

从短期至中期来看，绝对不是好的股票一定看涨，不好的股票肯定下跌，情况可能完全相反。一家企业也许获利丰厚，可以支付红利，还有良好的发展前景，但只有需求大于供给时，才会在证券市场中看涨，这是证券交易逻辑的惟一条件。傻瓜、股票，谁多?直到今天，科斯托兰尼还清楚记得第一次到巴黎证券交易所时的情景。一位老先生朝他走来：“年轻人，我没见过你。你是谁?”“我第一次到证券交易所．我是X公司的实习生。"“你的上司是我的朋友，我现在教你一些非常重要的东西。你看看周围，这里的一切都取决于一件事，就看这里的傻瓜比股票多，还是股票比傻瓜多。”这条座右铭也成为他的信条，我们可以这样解释，行情趋势要看卖方卖股票的情况，是否比买方买股票急迫。如果股票持有者迫于心理或物质上的压力，被迫出售股票，而资金所有者虽然想买，却无购买压力，行情就会下跌。反之．如果资金所有者迫切寻找股票，而股票持有者并没有物质或心理上的压力，要出售股票，行情就会上涨。科斯托兰尼希望大家一直记住这条准则，一切取决于供给和需求。而他全部的证券交易理论都以此为基础。

名言

“有一个男子带着狗在街上散步，像所有的狗一样，这狗先

跑到前面，再回到主人身边。接着，又跑到前面，看到自己跑得太远．又再折回来。整个过程里，狗就这样反反复复。最后，他俩同时抵达终点，男子悠闲地走了一公里，而狗跑来跑去，走了四公里。男子就是经济，狗则是证券市场。”

“巴尔扎克在一篇关于高雅生活的文章里写到，世上有三种

人，工作的人、思考的人和无所事事的人。真正的投机家是思考的人，但很多人却认为投机家是不用工作的人。”

“有钱的人可以投机；钱少的人不可以投机；根本没钱的人必须投机。”

安德烈·科斯托兰尼的箴言是：“心理造就90%行情。”他认为影响股价（特别是短期走势）起伏的原因，主要并非受经济发展的影响，而是受制于投资者对消息的反应及心理因素。好消息未必一定令股价上升，大众对消息的反应才是影响股价的主要因素。

凡是证券交易所里人尽皆知的事，不会令我激动。经常有人问我，我的讯息和想法是从哪来的。我的回答很简单，其实，我不寻找讯息，而是发现讯息。

科斯托兰尼说过这样一句话：“职业投资者的工作，95%是在浪费时间，他们在阅读图表及营业报告，却忘记思考，但对投资者来说，这才是最重要的。”

整个图表系统哲学最终以一个假设为基础，谁要关心未来，就必须带着敬畏的心接受过去。

投机不等于赌博，投机是有想法，有计划的行为。只有少数人能投机成功，关键在于与众不同，并相信自己。投机家是以思考工作的人，看起来懒懒地躺在沙发椅，或许听音乐、或许阅读一本书，但是脑袋里忙得很，靠着自己追踪收集来的资讯作原料，运用过往的经验作工作进行分析，然后行动！想方设法从各种交易获利，这就是他对投机客的定义。在科斯托兰尼眼中，投机的目标在成为百万富翁——并不是说要累积多少财富，而是要：“不依赖任何人，以自己的资本，就能满足自我需要的人。百万富翁不用工作既不用在上司面前，也无需对客户卑躬屈膝。至于构成百万富翁的实际金额，就因人而异。他描绘的这种生活，自然吸引了许多想从数字变化中讨生活的人青睐。”

投机价值的升跌，有客观的因素，是可以通过分析，计算出来的，大家都看得中，就大家一起赚，大家都看错，只有你一人看中，你也一样可以大赚。譬如某种股票，在没有人看好之前你先入市，随后才有人大量入市，就会把价位堆高，你先人一步，就可以坐享其成。

总之，投机就是投机，不是赌博，这才是正确的投机观念。投机可以经分析作基础，制订计划，选择项目，这是一整套理性的过程。这个道理说着简单，却不得人人都明白，没有树立正确投资观念的人，他的投机可以说就是在碰运气，在赌博，将自己的人生交给了所谓的运气。成功的投机者会将赌博和投资分得清清楚楚。

多数的交易员因为缺乏纪律而遭致失败而非因知识不足而失败。

坚持自己的想法，别人的想法只是别人的，你所能用的只有自己的节奏，所以要不随波逐流。这样你才能在如流的人海中找到一块正真正属于自己的领土。

不要在太显著的讯号中操作，一个完美的形态往往导致最大最痛的亏损，如果它看起来不太好而不像是真的，它往往就不是真的。当你接收到一个完美的形态或信号时，小心！提防那只是美丽的陷阱。

不要忽视警讯——大的亏损很少没有警讯，不要在正在下沉的船中等待救生艇。

买股票时，需要想象力，卖股票时，需要理智。

各行业变动时，往往呈现出明显的、可测的增长或衰退的格局。这些变动与国民经济总体的周期变动是有关系的，但关系密切的程度又不一样。据此，可以将行业分为三类：增长型行业、周期型行业、防御型行业。

选择增长型行业的股票，是使你在股市中立于不败之地的法宝。

所谓逆向股是指在股票市场中，呈现逆向表现的股票。在逆向表现的股票中寻找赢利机会，是科斯托兰尼又一个技巧。

关键在于判断市场处于哪个阶段。

中短期走势与心理因素有关。这里一切取决于一件事，就看是傻瓜比股票多，还是股票比傻瓜多。如果股票持有者迫于心理或物质上的压力，被迫出售股票，而资金所在者虽然想买，却无购买压力，行情就会下跌。反之，如果资金所有者迫切寻找股票，而股票持有者并没有物质或心理上的压力，要出售股票，行情就会上涨。科斯托兰尼一直记住这条准则，一切取决于供给和需求。他全部的证券交易理论都可以此为基础。

货币+心理=趋势

投资者分两类，固执的和犹豫的，胜利者是固执的人。

绝对不要借钱买股票。

要有自己的想法。

大家在证券交易所里赚钱，不是靠头脑，而是靠坐功。

只有少数人能投机成功，关键在与众不同，并相信自己：“我知道，其他人都是傻瓜。”全部的技巧，就在于判断市场是处在哪个阶段。

在出现不利消息时，市场并没有下跌，就是市场出现超卖，行情已接近最低点的征兆。一般所谓成交量小时，行情下滑并不重要的看法。赞成这种观点的人会说，大众在这种情况下并没有抛售股票。但是这没有说明任何问题，重要的是，股票还掌握在犹豫的投资者手里，他们今天没有卖掉股票，并不表示他们不会在明天、1个星期后或1个月后，把所有的股票卖掉。

相反地，当成交量愈来愈大，股票还不断看涨时，也是前景堪虑。因为成交量愈大，表示股票市场愈容易受伤，因为这时证券市场刚好进入上涨的第三阶段。

反之，当成交量小时，如果指数看涨，这种情形就非常有利，事实是股票还一直掌握在固执的投资者手里，并没有转移到犹豫的投资者手中，所以指数肯定还会继续看涨，也会吸引犹豫的投资者，而固执的投资者就等着把股票卖给犹豫的投资者。

长期影响因素

对大势、长期走势而言，心理因素不再重要，而在于股票本身的基本因素和赢利能力，所以关键在于你能准确把握股票信息。

科斯托兰尼有一句比较经典的名言：“会影响股市行情的，是投资大众对重大事件的反应，而非重大事件本身”。在读报过程中，发现重要的消息，通常是隐藏在字里行间的讯息。

证券市场的反应常常像醉鬼一样，听到好消息时哭，听到不好的消息时却笑了。这种现象被称为既成事实现象，证券市场的逻辑和日常生活的逻辑，是无法相提并论的。科斯托兰尼认为如果你能准确掌握这些股票动态，在以后很长的时间里，你都将是无往不胜的。

股票投资是一门艺术，历史和哲学在投资决策时显然比统计学和数学更有用。

莫愁前路无知己，天下谁人不识君。

Market Overview on 23 June 2009

After the 3 month uncommon bull run (or perhaps the bear market rally?) for the global financial market by gaining more than 30%, I believe the bull market peaked on 12/06/2009. The mood in the financial markets can be as unpredicatable as the weather. Some important thing contribute to this bull are:-
1. A series of better than expected US home sales and factory orders data reported.
2. Fed to enhance the power of printing press by print new notes amounting 1.2 trillion.They will used this money to buy US treasury bond,
3. OBAMA's Government 1.2 trilion plan to clean up the toxic assets in the Bank's
balance sheet.
4. Better than expected result reported from finacial sector like Citicorp, Bank of America,Well Fargo.
5. G20 pledging a 1.1 trillion package to IMF to revive global economy.
6. US policy maker to relaxed the Mark to Market rules into the book of Bank.

I believe US market won't reach below 6547 due to the
below reason:-
1. FED is printing USD1.3 trillion to flood the banking system with liquidity. Subsequently, the inflation will be seen, inflation is bode well to the commodities, equity, property.
2. The risk of the bank to be nationalized waning due to 1.2 trillion toxic cleaning plan & easing of Mark to marked regulation.

But the Bull market won't come to town yet due to US economy not out of wood :
1. Umployment rate at the 30 year high 8.5%, expected will be reach 10% end of 2009.
2. Credit card crisis in the offing after 10% unployment got no money to pay the bill.
3. More foreclosures will be happen after 10% unployment.
4. 75% of the GDP of US coming from the spending of consumer, As far as i know,
American already swift from living beyond their mean to the conservative saving
lifestyle like Asian, In other word. The high saving rate of American not bode well for the economy which is highly depend on the domestic demand.
5. The effect of the wealth disruption due to deleveraging of global financial assets still not completely felt by man in the street. I mean some of the consumer still not fell the pain yet.

Although some of the economist & expert claim that the green shoot already seen in
the US, but I believe worst is over & I didn't expect good time already in town due to saving rate in US gradually increase from 0% to 4-5% at the year end, I don't see
any mamooth can be substitute the consumer of US at this moment...

Invest2rich

Trends

Why You Should Trade Trending Stocks

To consistently make money in the stock market, you only want trade stock trends! But what are the characteristics that make up a trend? I thought you would never ask.

Remember when we talked about stock market stages?

Well Stage 2 is an uptrend that is characterized by a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL).

Stage 4 is a downtrend that is characterized by a series of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).

This creates a series of peaks and troughs on the chart that you can trade quite successfully.

Below is the the beautiful anatomy of stock trends:




Stocks Trends Vs. Trading Ranges

It is estimated that stocks only trend about 30% of the time. The rest of the time they move sideways in trading ranges. This is what a trading range looks like:



Yeah, trading ranges can get that sloppy! There is absolutely no reason to trade stocks that are chopping around like that when you can trade stocks that are in the trending phases. Trying to trade stocks in trading ranges (stage 1 and stage 3) is a great way to chew up your trading capital. Stick with trends!

Stock Market Stages

Stage Analysis on a Stock Chart

To trade stocks successfully, you must first understand the four stock market stages that individual stocks and the overall market go through.

These cycles tell you if you should be long, short or in cash.

Once you are able to identify what stage it is in, you can then trade accordingly to those characteristics.

After a while you won’t even have to think about whether you should be long or short. You will know, without question, exactly what you should be doing NOW. You will either be focusing on long positions, short positions, or you will stay safely in cash - just by glancing at a chart!

Here are the four stages that stocks go through. This happens in all time frames whether it is a monthly chart, weekly chart, daily chart, or an intraday chart.

market stages graphic

Ok, so I’m not the best artist in the world but I think it will serve our purpose here! What? You thought it would be more complicated that? My philosophy on the stock market is that if it is too complicated then it is just not worth doing. Now, we’ll look at the characteristics of the four stock market stages. I promise it will be painless!

Stage One

Stage 1 is the stage right after a prolonged downtrend. This stock has been going down but now it is starting to trade sideways forming a base. The sellers who once had the upper hand are now beginning to lose their power because of the buyers starting to get more aggressive. The stock just drifts sideways without a clear trend. Everyone hates this stock!

Stage Two

Finally stocks break out into Stage 2 and begins the uptrend. Oh, the glory of stage 2!! Sometimes I have dreams of stocks in Stage 2! This is where the majority of the money is made in the stock market. But here is the funny thing: No one believes the rally! That’s right, everyone still hates the stock. The fundamentals are bad, the outlook is negative, etc. But professional traders know better. They are accumulating shares and getting ready to dump it off to those getting in late. This sets up stage 3.

Stage Three

Finally, after the glorious advance of stage 2, the stock begins to trade sideways again and starts to "churn". Novice traders are just now getting in! This stage is very similar to stage 1. Buyers and sellers move into equilibrium again and the stock just drifts along. It is now ready to begin the next stage.

Stage Four

This is the dreaded downtrend for those that are long this stock. But, you know what the funny thing is? You guessed it. Nobody believes the downtrend! The fundamentals are probably still very good and everyone still loves this stock. They think the downtrend is just a “correction”. Wrong! They hold and hold and hold, hoping it will reverse back up again. They probably bought at the end of Stage 2 or during Stage 3. Sorry, you lose. Checkmate!

Elliott Wave

The elliott wave pattern is a structure that defines how a stock behaves. All stocks tend to move in a basic five wave structure that consists of a motive phase and a corrective phase.

For swing traders, the motive phase is what we are interested in. You will see that the elliott wave theory falls neatly into my favorite type of trade: The First Pullback Trade.

First, look at the following graphic to to get an idea of what the pattern looks like...

elliott wave

The Phases

The motive phase of an elliott wave cycle consists of five waves. You can see the waves labeled on the chart above numbered 1 through 5. Think of the motive phase as a detailed view of an uptrend.

The corrective phase is labeled on the chart above as Wave A, Wave B, and Wave C. This is the phase that "corrects" the uptrend. We are not really concerned with this phase, but I wanted you to learn the basic cycle!

Wave One

This wave breaks the previous downtrend and begins a new uptrend. This marks the beginning of the trend. You want to start watching for a pullback when this wave starts.

Wave Two

The pullback! Now you want to start looking for an entry using candlestick patterns. This sets up our First Pullback scenario. You are hopping on board at the beginning of an uptrend.

Wave Three

Wave three of an elliott wave cycle is the longest and the strongest of all five waves! That is why we want to get on board during wave two (the pullback) right as wave three is beginning to unfold.

When you can find stocks that are beginning a wave three, you want to hold on to your position for a longer time frame. Don’t treat is at a little swing trade, instead, treat it as a trend trade. You want to ride this powerful wave to completion! Why? Because you will make the most amount of money in the least amount of time. Ya, gotta love that!

Wave Four

This wave is pretty disappointing for those that bought this stock too late. The stock moves a lot slower and is a signal that the best part of the trend is over.

Wave Five

Again, this wave is usually sluggish and not near as dynamic as the third wave of an elliott wave cycle. This also marks the last burst of buying before a new downtrend starts.

Wave A, B, and C

These waves finally start the downtrend. You will notice that wave A looks like just a regular pullback. Nope. This is a bull trap. You will also notice that wave B doesn't get higher than wave 5. This is the first pullback of the downtrend and wave C is the third wave in a downtrend!! This is where you would look for shorting opportunities.

This is the basic structure of an elliott wave pattern. There is a lot more to elliott wave theory, but some of it can get very complicated. Also, sometimes it can be very difficult to identify exactly which part of the cycle a stock is in!

Here are some more Elliott Wave articles that you might enjoy reading...